Forex Technical Trend Analysis

Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair started this week the motion within the big bull movement. Yesterday the price reached the resistance level 102.20 and started pushing the price back to level 101.50. Today we observed the price passing through the 50EMA at the 101.40 level and its further decline.

At the moment the price is expected to break 100EMA support level. We suppose that the price will drop lower than the 100.00 level in next few days. The news concerning the negative financial situation in the Europe influenced the exchange rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance
(S3)100.92 (S2)101.22 (S1)101.41 (PP)101.71 (R1)102.01 (R2)102.20 (R3)102.50

Important News
(EUR) German Import Prices m/m
(EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y
(EUR) Private Loans y/y
(EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks

Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY pair completed the wave 5 in corrective A wave at level 102.19 and started next 3-wave correction within the wave B. According to our wave rules and concerning that the wave B will be completed around 50% retrace of the wave A we can define the prospective targets with Fibonacci Retracement (97.03-102.19): 50% retrace at 99.60.

Trading Forecast

Taking into account Elliott Wave Rules we can expect that today the trend will go downwards. Thus, it is recommended to open Short positions at level 100.70 with Stop Loss at level 101.20 and Take Profit at level 99.60.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Market Overview
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair reached the level 1.3180 starting the descending movement from this resistance level. The news concerning the positive financial situation in the USA influenced the exchange rate of the pair. As a result the dollar has strengthened against euro and pushed the price to the level 1.3109. At the moment the price is testing the 50EMA support level. In case the level 1.3085 is passed through it will be possible to consider the 100EMA the next support level located near the point 1.3045.

Support and Resistance
(S3)1.3034 (S2)1.3070 (S1)1.3091 (PP)1.3127 (R1)1.3163 (R2)1.3184 (R3)1.3220

Important News
(EUR) German Import Prices m/m
(EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y
(EUR) Private Loans y/y
(EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
(USD) Advance GDP q/q
(USD) Advance GDP Price Index q/q
(USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
(USD) Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
(USD) FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD
For 10 days the EUR/USD pair remained within the bullish tendency. This week the new (1) wave was formed. At level 1.3062 the euro indicated the possibilities of a bullish motion in the first quarter of 2012. Presently we can observe the 2nd sub-wave within the wave 3.According to our wave rules and concerning that the wave 2 will be completed at 50% retrace of the wave 1 we can define our potential targets for entering the wave 3 according to Fibonacci Retracement (1.2928-1.3184) – 50% retrace at level 1.3056. For Stop Loss level we can use the end of the wave 2 at level 1.2928

Trading Forecast

Taking into account Elliott Wave Rules we can expect that today the trend will go upwards. Thus, it is recommended to open long positions at level 1.3056 with Stop Loss at level 1.2928 and Take Profit at level 1.3475.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Pivot Point: 1.0016.

Overview:

The market remains strong and achieved the level 0.9960 (11% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Thus, a month ago (on October 30, 2011) the USD/CAD resistance level was broken and turned into support level. The pair has already formed the strong support at the level 0.9960. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level 0.9960 with the level 1.0130 as the first objective and continues the movement to the level 1.02. The downside momentum is expected later.

However, if the trend is not able to break through and close above the level 1.02, then the downward momentum is to take place. This fact is quite convincing as the structure of the downward movement appears to be non-corrective. Therefore the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at level 1.0200, from which the SELL-deals are recommended. On H4 the descending movement to the level 1.0010 will resume.

Trading Recommendations:

Considering the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.0020 and 1.0270.
BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 0.9960 level with targets 1.313 and 1.32.

The pair is likely to turn downwards from the pint lower than 1.0200 and with the level 1.0010 as a target.

Technical Levels:

R3: 1.0118
R2: 1.0083
R1: 1.0051
PP: 1.0016
S1: 0.9984
S2: 0.9949
S3: 0.9917

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

Key level at 0.9960.

History will probably repeat itself at this level again.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Pivot Point: 1.3127.

Time Frame: H4

Overview:

Last week (December 24 – 28, 2011) the EUR/USD resistance level was broken and turned to support level near the price of 1.3200. Therefore, the pair has already formed a strong resistance level 1.32.

Moreover, having failed to close higher than the level 1.32 the pair indicated a bearish movement. It is necessary to mention that these levels coincide with strong bullish movement on the H4 chart. The pair acquired a strong resistance at 1.32.

So the pair movement will be provided by the downside momentum which is quite convincing and the character of the descending motion appears to be non-corrective, indicating a bearish possibility below the level 1.3215 (Support 2). It can be considered a good sign for SELL-deals at level 1.3215 with the first target at the 1.3020 level and is likely to initiate the downtrend. Then the bearish tendency to the 1.2940 level is expected to be continued.

However, it should also be mentioned that the price is still between the levels 1.3215 and 1.2810. The RSI and the last strong support levels can still initiate the upward trend. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at level 1.299 on H4 chart with the first target of 1.3127 (Pivot point) continuing to the 1.32 level.

Trading Recommendations:

Taking into account the previous events, the price is still between 1.32 and 1.2850.
BUY-deals are recommended above the 1.299 level with target at 1.313 and then at 1.32.
Below 1.32 look for further downside pace with the first target of 1.3020 and then of 1.2940.

It is possible that the pair will turn to downward movement from the level 1.32 with the first targets at levels 1.3020 and 1.2940.

Technical Levels:

R3: 1.3248
R2: 1.3215
R1: 1.3160
PP: 1.3127
S1: 1.3072
S2: 1.3039
S3: 1.2984

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

Buyers are BIDding at a lower price.

Sellers are ASKing for a high price.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Yesterday EUR/USD was testing the upper limit of the bullish channel at 1.3165, when we suggested a short position.

Two TP levels at 1.3110 and 1.3080 got hit during the last few hours.

Now we have a SUPPLY zone between 1.3132-1.3180 which is being retested now giving another opportunity to go short again.

We may have a "Head & Shoulders" reversal pattern being formed now to be confirmed with closure below the neck-line at 1.3075 targetting 1.2980.

TP should be located at 1.3100, 1.3075, 1.3030 then 1.3000 & SL for the short position should be located above 1.3205.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

As we see on the DAILY chart of USD/CAD, the pair respected its lower shorter term downtrend line without reaching the higher and longer term one.

Then the pair managed to break its uptrend line extending since August 2011 followed by break of the support level at 1.0050-1.0065.

Now the pair is targetting at 0.9890 which may take some time to reach.

On the hourly chart, we see breakout of the bearish channels and a retesting now.

This indicates the possibility of beginning of retracement to the upside in order to retest the last resistance level 1.0050-1.0065  and to resume its downside movement.

Based on the previous analysis:

There’s a good SHORT opportunity at retesting of 1.0050-1.0065 with TP at 1.0025, 1.0000, 0.9950 then 0.9890.

SL should be performed by a daily closure above 1.0105.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

As we see on the DAILY chart of USD/CAD, the pair respected its lower shorter term downtrend line without reaching the higher and longer term one.

Then the pair managed to break its uptrend line extending since August 2011 followed by break of the support level at 1.0050-1.0065.

Now the pair is targetting at 0.9890 which may take some time to reach.

On the hourly chart, we see breakout of the bearish channels and a retesting now.

This indicates the possibility of beginning of retracement to the upside in order to retest the last resistance level 1.0050-1.0065  and to resume its downside movement.

Based on the previous analysis:

There’s a good SHORT opportunity at retesting of 1.0050-1.0065 with TP at 1.0025, 1.0000, 0.9950 then 0.9890.

SL should be performed by a daily closure above 1.0105.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

The spot rate is moving in a medium-term trading range and approaching the lower limit of this one at 76.60 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through these levels will initiate a bearish trend.
Technical indicators give buy-signals suggesting a rebound in the short term.
According to previous events, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the levels of 76.60 with the 1st objective of 77.20, and then of 77.40. A puncture of 76.40 will change this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Pivot Point: 1.5695.

GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.575. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.55. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still located between levels1.5750 and 1.55.

• BUY-deals are to be made higher than the 1.55 level with targets at levels 1.5525 and 1.5675.
• The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.575 level with the first targets at levels 1.5653, 1.559 and 1.5465.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability and the trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5750 and 1.5400, so it is recommended to be careful in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5400 level (Support 3: 1.5469) with its first target at level 1.55. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.56 and later to 1.5675. However, if the pair is not to pass through the level 1.5750, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity lower than the strong resistance level 1.5750. In this regard, it is recommended to make SELL-deals lower than the 1.5750 level with the first target of 1.56. It is possible that the pair will turn to downward movement continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.555.
IFX. Агапова

Intraday Technical levels (the 27^th of January, 2012):

R3: 1.5804
R2: 1.5769
R1: 1.5730
PP: 1.5695
S1: 1.5656
S2: 1.5621
S3: 1.5582

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.

Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com

Gold is moving in a medium-term trading range approaching the intermediate resistance level 1.748. This fact points at possible decline. However, a breakdown of these levels will open the way to the upper limit of the trading range.

Technical indicators do not provide signals for SELL-deals but the evolvement in overbuy zone reveals the opportunity of possible decline.

Analyzing the previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as the gold has passed through the resistance level 1.748 with its 1st objective at level 1.760 and then the level 1.765. If the level 1.746 is broken down the supposed scenario will be reversed.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company – instaforex.com